ELECTIONS · 2003–2015
Project 61.Who gets the polls right?
Every Israeli election poll published in the final month of five campaigns, scored against the real result. Pollsters are rated on their record, and the weighted average of them all beat every single one.
WSJ · FiveThirtyEight · Times of Israel
5 / 5
elections where our weighted average had the lowest error
99
Project 61 rating, vs a pollster average of 80
14
polling institutes rated
0.18
error score in 2015, vs 0.40 for the median pollster
Pollster rating
0–100, weighted toward recent campaigns. Higher is more accurate.
Error by election
Average error of each pollster’s final-month polls. Lower is better.
How the score works
Each poll is compared with the actual result of that election. Errors are combined with sampling error and the time between publication and election day. Pollster scores are compared with the average error of that campaign, regressed to the mean, and weighted toward recent campaigns.